The pre-Black Friday Outlook for e-Commerce

Written By Guest Blogger Robert Dumas 

Black Friday for retail, the kickoff day for holiday shopping, started almost half-century ago with long lines outside brick-and-mortar stores and the dawn unlocking of doors (and the occasional injury of a shopper in the stampede). Then came Cyber Monday after Thanksgiving, as ecommerce – initially with such tactics as flash sales, mostly possible only online – began claiming a bigger slice of the retail sales. Now the new “Cyber Five” days start on Thanksgiving and mark almost a full calendar week of buying, more and more often by clicking a mouse.

Is Black Friday still that big? We’ve pulled info from a variety of sources that indicate the answer is yes – with ecommerce leading the charge, as online accounted for almost five times the number of Black Friday sales in 2020 compared with 2010. This year’s holiday spending in general will hit some $985 billion, with online shopping expected to account for some $296 billion of that.

What else can we expect from online shoppers this Nov. 29? Let’s look at the many other glistening numbers …

An established big day

Looking at the trend of numbers, in 2023 Black Friday online sales grew 8% year-over-year to $70.9 billion globally, up some 7% in the U.S. A total of $123.5 billion was spent online in the month of November 2023, up 6% from the year before. Cyber Week drove $38 billion in online U.S. spending, up 7.8% year over year, and U.S. retail sales during the 2023 holiday season grew 3.8% over 2022 to a record $964.4 billion.

Black Friday was 2023’s most popular day for in-store shopping in the U.S., with 76.2 million shoppers visiting brick-and-mortar locations, up 4.5% from 2022. But Black Friday was also the most popular day for online shopping, with 90.6 million U.S. consumers shopping, up 3.9% from 87.2 million in 2022.

In-store Black Friday shopping jumped just 1%, though, a much smaller margin than the 8.5% increase for ecommerce. Online retail sales across the full Holiday Season increased some 5.5% over 2022 while in-store sales were up just 2.2%.

Technology has always impacted holiday shopping but the seems to grow every year: Amazon accounted for more than 17.7% of all Black Friday 2023 sales, and use of mobile wallets surged 54% year over year in the U.S. during Cyber Week 2023.

A record 200.4 million consumers shopped during last Cyber Week, surpassing 2022’s record number.

The lure of online

There’s no way around it: Technology has permanently changed holiday shopping.

The average expected holiday spend in 2024 is predicted to reach $1,778, up 8% over 2023; the hottest products are expected to be electronics, apparel and furniture/bedding. Predictions call for online spending to hit a record $241 billion to $296 billion this holiday season. Cyber Monday is expected to be the biggest day, but Black Friday 2024 is also expected to grow 9.9% over 2023, reaching $10.8 billion.

Almost two out of three (64%) of consumers will shop online this Black Friday (more than a third seeking deals on social media). Less than a third of U.S. consumers planned to shop in-store on Black Friday.

Black Friday remains the biggest day of the year for online retailers for more than one reason: Consumers are increasingly concerned that in-store prices are not competitive with online prices, with one in five consumers. Online retailers (71%) are among consumers’ top locations to shop due to price and convenience.

Black Friday sales are projected to reach $10 billion this year and $12.3 billion by 2028. Obviously, those numbers are going nowhere but up – and online companies need to make sure the years’ hugest shopping day doesn’t trigger economic nexus and sales tax obligations.

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